SKOL from the Sofa
2025 Week 14 – Commanders at Vikings

Going from a shutout loss one week to a shutout victory the next is no mean feat; will it spark a new dawn for the career of Vikings quarterback J. J. McCarthy? In this week’s SKOL from the Sofa, Charles Wheeler breaks down whether the Vikings were just that good, the Commanders were just that bad, or perhaps most likely, a little of both.

Dust off the 2024 draft takes and warm up that training camp hype in the microwave, folks, because this one was a hearty dose of J. J. McCatharsis. Your Minnesota Vikings bounced back from last week’s disasterclass in Seattle to blow out the Washington Commanders, becoming the first team to go from offensive shutout one week to defensive shutout the next since the 1992 Broncos. The 31-0 win included a 19-play, 98-yard touchdown drive that took 12 minutes off the clock – that’s the longest Vikings drive this century and up there with the longest in team history. Our young QB threw three touchdowns and no interceptions. Take a moment to savour that before we move on, and…

Okay, that’s too positive, let’s put some asterisks on it

Let’s be real: the Commanders defense is not good, and a lot of what went well today is still unproven against good teams. The Vikings’ remaining opponents are a combined 28-25-1 on the year, with three of the four having viable postseason ambitions.

They won’t all let Jones and Mason gash their D-line all day. They won’t leave Josh Oliver with 5 yards of space in every direction right next to the goal line. This game is not repeatable, but it’s a very real step in a promising direction, correcting a season of missteps.

How good was J. J.’s day really?

The headline on that front is, naturally, McCarthy. Kevin O’Connell made it clear that the plan was changing, with in-season mechanics refinement thrown out the window and the focus shifted to reads and completions. We were promised a J. J. McCarthy with a clear mind being allowed to play his own game, and my god did we ever get it.

The first TD, with J. J. ripping it down the seam to Oliver, was pure Michigan McCarthy, the kind of ball we’ve been dying to see thrown in the right place. Are the mechanics right? Not yet (although weirdly, with less conscious focus, they looked better!). Are we still getting more bullet passes than anything else? Sure. But that TD was the right throw, to the right guy, for 6, and it was far from an outlier.

This game was proof of concept. Proof that this can work. Proof that yes, the 22-year-old with ADHD and a screaming infant at home did just need slightly less to think about. Quiet mind, quiet pocket, good game. Who’d have thought?

And even with the caveats, that’s all still worth something. Like I say, Washington left guys open that other teams won’t, but still… J. J. threw them the ball and they caught it. One of his most glaring issues when you watch the all-22 has been bizarre turndowns of wide-open intermediate targets in favour of covered-up checkdowns, an attitude that manages to be both over-conservative and over-risky at the same time (enough! Kirkball begone!).

On Sunday there was none of that. The guys were open and he hit them. Justin Jefferson’s nothing statline was another case of his gravitational pull giving everyone else room to work, and they worked. Tight end security blankets actually offered security. McCarthy’s connection with Addison continued to blossom. Even if it’s not exactly repeatable, knowing that it can work is step 1 to making it work. Every consistent success started with something working once.

The donut on the other side

Speaking of emergent consistency, let’s look at where that’s actually happening. Brian Flores’ defense pitched its first shutout since the 3-0 weird-off in Vegas two years ago, and even with Washington’s distinct struggles, this felt earned. Again, not every opponent will let 36-year-old Harrison Smith jump a route for an easy pick, and the first Ginking of a screen pass in a fair while was a rarity for a reason, but they still happened in an NFL game, they still relied on our guys executing, and they still count.

Jayden Daniels was, for my money, the most pro-ready quarterback in his class, and his absence is largely the driver of this blip of a season for the Commanders. And sure, Flores’ group beat him up for three quarters rather than four, but they still did that. That’s still real.

The defense, in fact, is starting to stack some days. Last week will be remembered for our goose egg on the scoreboard, but despite giving up 26, they didn’t really look particularly bad. After some serious early-season problems, particularly defending the run, our play on this side of the ball is starting to look a lot like Flores’ best.

Emergent Turner and Redmond, resurgent Wilson, and that Gink-Greenard-Cashman trio as good as ever is giving us real hope, and when you can put that much pressure on a bad team up front, a lacklustre secondary is going to have a much better day.

A building block

At this point I may be repeating myself, but it’s really worth hammering home exactly what a blowout against a poor opponent can mean. Sure, they’re beatable, but you still have to go out and beat them. Sure, they didn’t threaten the pocket much, but our full-strength offensive line starting their second game together all year(!) still had to do their job.

It might be overly optimistic to call this a new baseline until we see what’s built on it, but are you gonna tell me that game didn’t meet the criteria of a new starting point? Even with all our ingrained pessimism, you have to admit that there’s nothing outside of “just our luck”-type thinking that says we won’t look back on this one fondly, as the fledgling of something real.

That game, with every caveat you can apply to it, has still transformed the narrative on J. J. McCarthy from “get out of the league, JaMarcus Russell Jr” to “hey, maybe we do have something here” in a lot of minds, and that is absolutely correct. If you were seriously worried, you were right! If you’re now hopeful, you’re right! If you have remaining skepticism and want to see what comes next, you’re also right!

With four games left, we’re still seeing what we have, but man does that feel like a much more heartening prospect than it did before kickoff.

Technically we can still talk about the playoffs, I guess

Okay, so, it’s not happening. We know that. Less than 1% chance according to the prediction models. BUT… if the following happens:

• Vikings win out
• Bears lose out
• Lions lose out apart from beating the Bears

…then the 9-8 Vikings will sneak in as the 7th seed. I am telling you there’s a chance. I am also telling you it’s probably healthier to just enjoy the ride. And for the first time in a good few weeks, I am telling you that the ride looks like it might be kinda fun.

Do you want to have your say about an upcoming Vikings game? Is something really grinding your gears? You can have your say right here in Skol from the Sofa. Just drop us an email at UKVikingsFanClub@gmail.com or send us a DM on any of our social media channels.